Monthly Archives: September 2017

Profit Margins, Bayes’ Theorem, and the Dangers of Overconfidence

It’s the fall of 2011. Investors are caught up in fears of another 2008-style financial crisis, this time arising out of schisms in the Eurozone. The S&P 500 is trading at 1200, the same price it traded at in 1998, … Continue reading

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