Author Archives: philosophicalecon@gmail.com

Free Banking on a Bitcoin Standard–The State Prepares its Death Blow

In a previous piece, we examined the inner workings of a gold-based fractional-reserve free banking system–the monetary system that was roughly used in the United States for much of the 19th century and before.  The system works as follows.  Customers … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Free Banking on a Bitcoin Standard–The State Prepares its Death Blow

Supply and Demand: Untangling the Market’s Greatest Mystery

Over the last ten years, the “collectibles” market has produced a fantastic return for investors.  According to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index, classic cars are up 550%, coins and stamps are up 350%, and fine wine and art are … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Supply and Demand: Untangling the Market’s Greatest Mystery

Why is the Shiller CAPE So High?

Why is the Shiller CAPE so high?  In the last several weeks, a number of prominent academics and financial market commentators have attempted to answer this question, to include the inventor of the valuation measure himself, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller.  In … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Why is the Shiller CAPE So High?

Global Stock Market Valuation and Historical Real Returns Image Gallery

In this piece, I’m going to analyze the historical local currency real total returns of different stock markets around the world: 46 different large cap indices, 12 different small and mid (SMID) cap indices, and, for the U.S., 4 different style indices–growth, … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Global Stock Market Valuation and Historical Real Returns Image Gallery

How Money and Banking Work On a Gold Standard

Most financial professionals–to include those that work in the banking industry–do not have a clear understanding of how money and banking work on a gold standard.  This is hardly something to be ashamed of–most mathematicians don’t have a clear understanding … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on How Money and Banking Work On a Gold Standard

Who’s Afraid of 1929?

Earlier this year, the market was bombarded with a series of stupid charts comparing 2014 to 1929.  As happens with all incorrect predictions, the prediction that 2014 was going to unfold as a replay of 1929 has quietly faded, without a follow-up … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Who’s Afraid of 1929?

A Critique of John Hussman’s Chart of Estimated Future Equity Returns

Of all the arguments for a significantly bearish outlook, I find John Hussman’s chart of estimated future equity returns, shown below, to be among the most compelling.  I’ve spent a lot of time trying to figure out what is going … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on A Critique of John Hussman’s Chart of Estimated Future Equity Returns

Forecasting Stock Market Returns on the Basis of Valuation: Theory, Evidence, and Illusion

In this piece, I’m going to present and explain a simple, easy-to-understand method of forecasting stock market returns on the basis of valuation.  I’m then going to insert the popular Shiller CAPE into the method to assess how well the historical predictions … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Forecasting Stock Market Returns on the Basis of Valuation: Theory, Evidence, and Illusion

Profit Margins: Accounting for the Effects of Wealth Redistribution

In the previous piece, I addressed a popular argument for the necessity of profit margin mean-reversion grounded in the Kalecki-Levy profit equation: Profit/GNP = Investment/GNP + Dividends/GNP – Household Saving/GNP – Government Saving/GNP – ROW Saving/GNP I made three points. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Profit Margins: Accounting for the Effects of Wealth Redistribution

Profit Margins Don’t Matter: Ignore Them, and Focus on ROEs Instead

Mean-reversion in a system doesn’t happen simply for the sake of happening.  It happens because forces in the system cause it to happen.  With respect to profit margins, the following questions emerge: What are the forces that cause profit margins to … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Profit Margins Don’t Matter: Ignore Them, and Focus on ROEs Instead